3 takeaways from Florida’s special election

Republicans held control of two House seats in Florida in a special election on Tuesday, though by significantly slimmer margins than their GOP predecessors when President Donald Trump was also on the ballot. 

The special election, held to fill seats vacated by National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and former Rep. Matt Gaetz, drew national attention, with the Democratic National Committee chair flying in to rally in support for Democrat Josh Weil in the 6th District, and the Trump White House backing Republican Randy Fine online. Fine was ultimately victorious in the 6th District election, succeeding Waltz, who has recently come under scrutiny following an apparent national security breach in a Signal group chat. 

Meanwhile, Republican Jimmy Patronis defeated Democratic challenger Gay Valimont and secured GOP control of the 1st District seat vacated by Gaetz. Patronis’ win was also by slimmer margins than what Republicans won in November’s contest. 

Here are three takeaways from the Florida special election that observers consider a bellwether for Republicans ahead of midterms, which typically sees the party that lost the presidency pick up congressional seats. 

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The pair of special election victories in Florida means the Republican Party maintains control of the House of Representatives by a 220-213 margin. Trump was concerned over the slim margin in the House when he pulled the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., for the U.S. ambassadorship to the United Nations. Stefanik was the third highest-ranking House Republican and campaigned heavily for Trump during the last election cycle. 

Stefanik, who previously served as the House Republican Conference chair, recognized the “historically slim House majority” when it stood at 218-213 last week and agreed to step up in Congress to deliver on Trump’s America First agenda.

Trump championed the Florida victories in a Truth Social post on Tuesday night. 

“BOTH FLORIDA HOUSE SEATS HAVE BEEN WON, BIG, BY THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE. THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT, AS ALWAYS, PROVED FAR GREATER THAN THE DEMOCRATS FORCES OF EVIL. CONGRATULATIONS TO AMERICA!!!” he wrote. 

Fine won the 6th District special election over Weil by 14 points – a significantly tighter margin than Waltz’s 33-point victory five months ago. According to the Florida Division of Elections, Fine received nearly 57% of the vote, while Weil received nearly 43%. 

Patronis, meanwhile, received nearly 57% of the vote in the 1st District, while Valimont received nearly 43% of the vote. The 14-point win enjoyed by Patronis comes after Gaetz won re-election in the heavily red district by 32 points last November.

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“This is the functional equivalent of Republicans running a competitive race in the district that is represented by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., before Tuesday’s contest, according to the Associated Press. “Kamala Harris won that district by 30 points. Do you think a Republican would even be competitive in that district in New York, currently held by Alex? Of course, not.”

Republican voter turnout remains a challenge for the party in races when Trump is not on the ballot – an issue raised by conservative podcaster Charlie Kirk when discussing another significant contest for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat. 

Back in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said he expected that any GOP underperformance in the 6th District, which he once represented, would be “a reflection of the candidate,” the Orlando Sentinel reported. 

Fine, a casino millionaire who served eight years in the state House and then a shorter time in the state Senate, has long garnered controversy in Florida politics. Patronis, meanwhile, served as Florida’s chief financial officer under DeSantis. 

Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said Democrats “dumped more than $10 million to try and buy” the 6th District seat picked up by Fine, “but voters decisively rejected them.”

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“The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats,” he said in a statement.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.