It Looks Like Emilia Pérez Is the Best Picture Front-runner Right Now

The week after the Oscar nominations is always a slow one on the awards front, and it’s even slower this year, as the film industry pauses to take stock after the catastrophic wildfires in Los Angeles. (“Slow” does not mean “quiet,” as the vacuum has been filled by a flurry of negative headlines around one contender in particular.) Things will pick up with next weekend’s Critics Choice Awards, which will lead us into a whirlwind February of precursor ceremonies. Whatever happens there should shed some light on what remains an unpredictable Best Picture race, but for now, here’s my ranking of where all the contenders stand. A lot can change between now and Oscar night — at this point three years ago, I had CODA in eighth place — so consider this less of a prediction of how things will go, and more a snapshot of how the field looks at the start of Phase Two.

10. Dune: Part Two

With no other above-the-line recognition and half the total nominations of its predecessor, Dune’s path to Best Picture appears slimmer than Timmy’s stillsuit. In theory, the sequel could still take home a precursor prize; in practice, this franchise will likely have to wait until its return to Arrakis to contend.

In the running at: Critics Choice, PGA.

9. I’m Still Here 

The biggest nomination-morning surprise, and our official “just happy to be there” nominee. The new political atmosphere has unfortunately made the Brazilian drama one of the more timely entries in the race, though since neither the film nor star Fernanda Torres were nominated in the main categories at any of the remaining precursors, a CODA-style late surge could only be detected if Walter Salles’s film somehow upset Emilia Pérez in BAFTA’s international-film race.

In the running at: Best Film Not in the English Language at BAFTA.

8. Nickel Boys

If the road to Best Picture runs through Director or Screenplay, then Nickel Boys is still technically in the running, since Adapted Screenplay is its only other nomination. But the film couldn’t translate its early love from the tastemakers into success at the guilds, and after missing what should have been a slam-dunk Cinematography nom, simply getting in here feels like a victory.

In the running at: The DGA’s First-Time Feature Prize.

7. Wicked

A funny thing happened with Wicked’s campaign: The people who insisted the musical was a Best Picture frontrunner were also the people who hated it the most, and wanted to use its presumed awards success as another cudgel to beat it with. (Something similar occurred around Don’t Look Up a few years back.) Now that Wicked has topped out as a second-tier contender, we’re hearing less of that kind of talk. Fans may take solace that the last film to win Best Picture without a Director or Screenplay trophy was Chicago, another musical. But Rob Marshall’s film at least got nominated in both categories, while Wicked was left out completely.

In the running at: Critics Choice, PGA, SAG.

6. The Substance 

The bloody French satire is running slightly ahead of Wicked on the basis of Coralie Fargeat’s Screenplay and Director nods. It’s almost certainly too weird to benefit from the preferential ballot, but it stands a good chance at coming away from Oscar night with the Actress and Makeup trophies — a haul Mubi would have bitten their arm off for at the beginning of the season.

In the running at: Critics Choice, PGA.

5. Conclave

The good news for Conclave is that it has an extremely plausible path to the Best Picture trophy: win at BAFTA, where it led the field in total nominations, take the Adapted Screenplay Oscar, then ride the preferential ballot to glory. However, Edward Berger missing a Best Director spot is a bitter gulp of communion wine, and Conclave’s status as this season’s Miss Congeniality may be in danger of being assumed by the next title on this list.

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG.

4. A Complete Unknown

In the kind of radical shakeup we haven’t seen since Bob Dylan plugged in that Stratocaster, James Mangold’s biopic blew through the precursors like a hurricane, brushing aside those Walk Hard comparisons with nary a second thought. Nomination morning brought two pleasant surprises in supporting actress Monica Barbaro and director James Mangold, and given the film’s wide support,Timothée Chalamet could very well become the youngest-ever Best Actor winner. A note of caution: While musical biopics are one of the Academy’s favorite subgenres, they don’t tend to actually win Best Picture. The last to do it was Amadeus, 40 years ago.

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG

3. Anora

On paper, Anora is performing exactly as a major contender should. It showed up at all the precursors, and got the nominations everyone expected. But blanking at the Golden Globes threw off the vibes, and now many are expecting the film to come away from Oscar night with only a consolation-prize Original Screenplay trophy. If that happens, we can discuss whether the film was too ribald for the Academy’s more traditional voters. However, there’s a lot of season left, and the thing about vibes is they can change in an instant.

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG.

2. The Brutalist

The Oscar nominations were smooth sailing for the immigrant drama, but there may be storm clouds on the horizon. A poor showing at SAG hinted that actors may not be entirely onboard, and we’ll have to wait to see if the AI controversy affects Adrien Brody’s Best Actor chances. Are we in for another Power of the Dog situation, where an artily austere period piece wins Director but nothing else?

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA.

1. Emilia Pérez

When you win a bunch of Golden Globes, get in at all the precursors, then score the second-most Oscar nominations ever, you look a lot like the film to beat. This has been more than a little distressing to Emilia Pérez’s many online detractors, from whom the musical’s razzle-dazzle showmanship pales in comparison to its hamfisted approach to trans issues and its artificial vision of Mexico. I have bad news for them: Voters who want to send a political message have chosen Emilia Pérez as their standard-bearer, seeing the trans-empowerment opera as a rebuke of the new administration. This week’s slew of scandals could have an effect, and Netflix titles have a history of fading down the stretch, but for the moment, everything is coming up Emilia. Brace yourself.

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG