BBQ lovers beware: Middle East conflict might disrupt your summer plans this year

Burger lovers take warning: neighborhood cookouts could be more expensive this summer, thanks to conflict in the Middle East.

Global tensions are pushing up energy prices, resulting in higher costs for beef and the propane used to fuel backyard grills — just in time for Americans getting ready for barbecue season.

“The impact of ongoing challenges in the Middle East on energy prices impacts nearly every facet of the U.S. economy and beef-cattle are not immune,” Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, told Fox News Digital.

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Ranchers rely on energy at nearly every step of their process, from fueling tractors in the field to using trucks to transport cattle, and those higher costs are often passed on to consumers, Tonsor explained.

Those pressures are showing up at the pump. The national average for a gallon of gas now stands at approximately $4.09, up roughly 93 cents from just one month ago, according to AAA, with costs climbing across nearly every region.

Diesel, a key fuel for freight and shipping, has climbed to $5.61, up about $2.03 over the past year, making it more expensive to move cattle and beef across the country.

The ripple effects go far beyond beef.

Propane, the fuel powering many backyard grills, is also getting more expensive as global energy markets tighten, in part, because countries in the Middle East are such major suppliers to the world.

U.S. propane prices at the Mont Belvieu hub, the industry benchmark for this type of power, have surged nearly 19% since the conflict began in late February.

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But higher energy costs are only part of the story.

Cattle supply remains slow to respond. Unlike oil or metals, where supply can be increased relatively quickly, cattle production takes years to ramp up after a dip.

The U.S. cattle herd is now at its smallest size in 75 years, which is keeping the supply tight following years of drought, rising costs and an aging ranching workforce resulting in producers needing to cut back.

That tight supply is already pushing prices higher — and the Iran conflict is only proliferating the issue.

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, the average price of beef in grocery stores climbed from about $8.70 per pound in March 2025 to $10.08 a year later — an increase of roughly 16%.

Subsequently, even if energy prices ease, beef prices likely won’t be quick to follow.

For shoppers, that means prices may remain high — or climb further — depending on whether consumers keep coughing-up cash for steak and burgers, or opt to switch to cheaper alternatives.

Much of that comes down to forces far beyond Americans’ backyard that continue to shape the cost of firing up the grill this summer.