New polls reveal Mamdani has commanding lead over rivals weeks from Election Day

With less than two months to go until Election Day, Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding lead over his rivals for New York City mayor, according to two new polls.

Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist state lawmaker from Queens who shocked the political world in June with his convincing win over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and nine other candidates to capture the Democratic Party’s mayoral nomination, is sitting on 22-point margins over Cuomo and the rest of the field in the two new surveys.

Mamdani grabs 45% support among likely New York City voters in a Quinnipiac University survey released on Wednesday.

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Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid multiple scandals and who is running as an independent candidate in the general election after losing the primary, stands at 23% support in the survey, which was conducted Sept. 4-8.

Guardian Angels co-founder Curtis Sliwa, who for a second straight election is the Republican mayoral nominee in the Democrat-dominated city, stands at 15%. And embattled incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent after deciding to skip the Democratic primary amid anemic polling, grabbed 12% support in the survey.

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Mamdani’s margin over Cuomo in the Quinnipiac poll was the same as his 46%-24% lead over the former governor in a New York Times/Siena College survey released on Tuesday.

“In a mayoral race that seems to grow more intense by the day, Zohran Mamdani has the wind at his back less than two months until Election Day,” Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow said.

Both Sliwa and Adams have repeatedly committed to staying in the race in recent weeks amid multiple reports that President Donald Trump’s advisors floated administration roles for both mayoral hopefuls if they dropped out.

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Trump, a native New Yorker who now calls Florida home, has urged that the field narrow in order to defeat Mamdani, whom the president repeatedly claims is a communist.

“I would like to see two people drop out and have it be one on one. And I think that’s a race that could be won,” Trump said last week.

The Quinnipiac poll suggested that if Adams ended his re-election campaign, Mamdani would lead Cuomo 46%-30% with Sliwa at 17%.

But the New York Times/Siena survey, which was in the field Sept. 2-6, pointed to Mamdani edging Cuomo 48%-44% in a hypothetical two-candidate match-up.

The Quinnipiac poll suggests Mamdani backers are more enthusiastic (91%) about their candidate than Cuomo (75%), Adams (75%) or Sliwa (79%) supporters.

“Mamdani’s edge on enthusiasm among supporters is a plus,” Snow noted.

If he wins November’s general election, the Ugandan-born Mamdani would make history as the first Muslim and first millennial mayor of the nation’s most populous city.

Mamdani surged to the Democratic primary victory thanks to an energetic campaign that put a major focus on affordability and New York City’s high cost of living. It was fueled by a grassroots army of supporters and backing from top national progressive champions, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Mamdani made smart use of social media platforms, including TikTok, as he engaged low-propensity voters. He proposed eliminating fares to ride New York City’s vast bus system, making CUNY (City University of New York) “tuition-free,” freezing rents on municipal housing, offering “free childcare” for children up to age 5 and setting up government-run grocery stores.

Among a list of nine issues offered, 30% of respondents in the poll said that crime was the most pressing matter, with 21% saying affordable housing and 13% naming inflation. No other issue cracked double digits.

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Just over two-thirds of likely voters questioned said they were dissatisfied with the way things are going in New York City. And two-thirds said they disapprove of the way Adams is handling his job as mayor.

A majority of those polled said they want the next mayor to stand up to Trump on immigration (60%) and on crime (56%), with less than four in ten saying they want the next mayor to do more to work with the president on both issues.