Pro Picks: Patriots will top the Broncos and Rams will edge the Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl

The NFL’s conference championship games feature both No. 1 seeds, two division rivals and a backup quarterback making his first start of the season.

The Denver Broncos (15-3) host the New England Patriots (16-3) in the AFC title game on Sunday. It was Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady the previous time they met in the playoffs 10 years ago.

Now, it’s backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham for the Broncos against second-year standout Drake Maye.

Then it’s a showdown between NFC West foes when All-Pro quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (14-5) visit Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks (15-3) in the their third matchup of the season.

Pro Picks examines both games:

NEW ENGLAND (16-3) at DENVER (15-3)

Line: Patriots minus 5 1/2

The Patriots are road favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook because the Broncos lost quarterback Bo Nix to an ankle injury in a 33-30 overtime win against Buffalo in the divisional round.

Stidham, who was selected by the Patriots in the fourth round of the 2019 draft to back up Brady, is making his fifth career start. He hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since 2023.

Maye threw three touchdown passes in the rain and snow last week and New England’s defense intercepted four passes, including a pick-6, in a 28-16 win against Houston. Maye lost two of his four fumbles in the nasty conditions but the Patriots are in the conference championship game for the 16th time in franchise history and first since going to eight in a row with Brady and coach Bill Belichick from 2011-18.

New England is seeking its 12th trip to the Super Bowl and seventh Lombardi Trophy. Coach Mike Vrabel earned three championship rings as a player with the Patriots in the 2000s.

The No. 1 seed Broncos are here for the first time since Manning and a dominant defense beat Brady and the Patriots 20-18 on the way to a victory over Carolina in the Super Bowl. Denver is 8-2 in AFC title games.

The Patriots had the league’s No. 3 offense in total yards behind Maye, running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte.

Denver’s defense led by All-Pro defensive lineman Zach Allen, edge rusher Nik Bonitto and cornerback Patrick Surtain II was second best in yards and third in points, allowing just 18.3 per game. New England’s defense was right behind, giving up only 18.8.

Broncos coach Sean Payton has valued Stidham as a backup and now he has to build a game plan around him in the biggest game of the season.

The Patriots are 13-5-1 against the spread while Denver is 8-9-1.

PATRIOTS: 20-16

LOS ANGELES RAMS (14-5) at SEATTLE (15-3)

Line: Seahawks minus 2 1/2

The Rams are seeking their third straight road win after eliminating Carolina in the wild-card round and beating Chicago 20-17 in overtime last week. Stafford and coach Sean McVay led them to a Super Bowl title four years ago and this will be the team’s 12th NFC championship game.

The No. 1 seed Seahawks routed the 49ers 41-6 to advance to their fifth conference title game and first in 11 years.

Darnold has struggled against the Rams. Los Angeles sacked Darnold nine times and intercepted him once in a 27-9 wild-card victory last season when he was with Minnesota.

In Week 11, Darnold threw four picks in a 21-19 loss to the Rams. He nearly rallied the Seahawks to victory but Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal at the end.

On Dec. 18, Darnold tossed two interceptions and was sacked four times as Seattle fell behind Los Angeles by 16 points in the fourth quarter. But the Seahawks stormed back to tie it up, including a wacky 2-point conversion, and won 38-37 in overtime when Darnold connected with Eric Saubert on another 2-pointer.

The Rams had allowed 30 points per game over a five-game stretch before holding Caleb Williams and the Bears to 17. With Stafford, All-Pro receiver Puka Nacua and star wideout Davante Adams, the Rams led the league in yards and scoring at 30.5 points per game.

The Seahawks were third in scoring (28.4) and their defense featuring defensive tackle Leonard Williams, linebacker Ernest Jones IV and cornerback Devon Witherspoon gave up the fewest points (17.2 per game).

The Rams are 12-7 ATS while the Seahawks are 13-5.

UPSET SPECIAL: RAMS: 27-26

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Last week: Straight up: 3-1. Against spread: 1-3.

Overall: Straight up: 192-89-1. Against spread: 148-126-8.

Prime time: Straight up: 36-25-1. Against spread: 28-34.

Best Bet: Straight up: 14-6. Against spread: 8-11-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 14-6. Against spread: 15-5.

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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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