Republicans bet higher tax refunds will boost midterm chances as blue states resist relief

Republicans are betting tax cuts they championed will be a difference-maker in November’s midterm elections amid a rise in refunds this filing season.

But Republicans still face a key challenge — convincing voters to credit them for the tax relief when they head to the ballot box.

“You can talk about it, but you’ve got to feel it and that’s what’s going to happen,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., told Fox News Digital in an interview on Wednesday, referring to the slate of new tax breaks signed into law by President Donald Trump in 2025. 

“We believe by the time of the midterms, people are not only going to be talking about it, they are going to feel it,” Emmer insisted.

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As they look to defend their slim House majority, the GOP is ramping up its messaging to promote the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, also known as the Working Families Tax Cuts. Republicans spent Tax Day on Wednesday touting larger refunds this year while highlighting Democratic lawmakers’ opposition to the tax bill that passed with solely GOP votes. 

The average refund this year is over $3,400, amounting to an 11% increase compared to last tax season, according to data released by the Internal Revenue Service on Wednesday.

Republicans have pointed to those returns as early proof their tax policy is reaching voters’ wallets.

A vast swath of Americans is also benefiting from new tax cuts that Trump first floated on the 2024 campaign trail.

More than 53 million tax filers claimed new deductions for tips, overtime pay, automobile loans or being over the age of 65, according to the Treasury Department. Some are also receiving a larger child tax credit and relief for state and local taxes.

“When you’re seeing it in your tax return, when you’re seeing it in your paycheck, when you’re actually able to feel that, I think that’s going to make a difference to put us in a good spot for 2026,” Rep. Riley Moore, R-W.Va., said Wednesday.

Democrats, however, argue those benefits may not be enough to overcome Americans’ broader economic concerns.

The party is voicing increasing confidence it will retake House control and put the Senate in play this November, citing voter discontent about cost-of-living issues and Trump’s declining approval ratings. Republicans must also overcome the trend of the party in power shedding seats during a midterm year.

“A lot of people want to count us out in November,” Emmer said during a GOP messaging event highlighting the new tax benefits on Wednesday. “We’re going to be just fine, because we’ve got a great map in the House. We’ve got great candidates across the country.”

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Democrats have largely opposed the tax cuts, arguing they disproportionately benefit corporations and the wealthy. 

But Republicans say working Americans and small businesses will see a smaller tax bill this year as a result of their policies. 

Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman told Fox News Digital that the overtime deduction has been a “morale booster” for law enforcement putting in extra hours.

More than 25 million Americans have claimed the new tax break with an average deduction of more than $3,100, according to the IRS. 

Republicans are also highlighting a slate of business tax breaks, which beneficiaries argue could boost job growth and provide economic benefits to their community.

“It gave me the certainty and the confidence to go out and make capital investments,” Courtney Silver, who owns a machine shop in North Carolina and invested more than $1 million in equipment following the passage of the tax bill, told Fox News Digital.

“For everything we invested in, we need to create those new positions on our team,” Silver added. 

The United States could have shed nearly 6 million jobs if Republicans had failed to extend the 2017 tax cuts through the party’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.

Still, seven in 10 Americans say their taxes are too high, the highest dissatisfaction in more than two decades, according to a recent Fox News poll. 

Some Democratic-led states have notably refused to conform to the new federal tax breaks enacted by Republicans, citing concern about their impact on state revenue. GOP lawmakers have argued it’s an attempt by Democrats to prevent voters from feeling the tax relief passed by Republicans.

“I’ve got a governor that refuses and a Democrat-controlled legislature that refuses to do tax compliance, so I’m not getting the benefit, nor is any other Minnesotan,” Emmer said, referring to the average increase in returns. “That’s a game changer and my state’s not getting that.”

Trump is heading to Nevada and Arizona beginning Thursday to highlight his “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime” policies as he goes to bat for Republicans to help them keep their bicameral congressional majority in this year’s midterm elections.