Small business uncertaintly hits all-time high ahead of Election Day

Wall Street might be booming, but Main Street is feeling more uncertainty than ever ahead of Election Day, as polling shows the race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is a dead heat.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses’ (NFIB) Uncertainty Index surged 11 points in September to 103, the highest reading on record, indicating small business owners’ jitters about the future are at an unprecedented level.

“Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.”

Shawn Cole, co-founder of Cowen Partners Executive Search, says the findings come as no surprise, saying “It feels like we’re in a stalemate right now.”

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“What makes this stalemate so frustrating is how long it’s dragged on,” he told FOX Business. “Inflation remains a top concern, and with broader economic issues, like the upcoming elections, there’s no clear path forward.”

Inflation remains the top operating problem small business owners cited in the survey, as they continue to face cost pressures. One small business owner from Georgia told FOX Business why that is.

“Inflation may be coming down, but prices aren’t coming down they are just going up slower,” business consultant and oXYGen co-founder Ted Jenkin told FOX Business. “When you couple that with the rising pressures of growing wages to maintain your labor force, it’s a real challenge as a small business owner to realize you can only raise your prices so high before you price yourself out of the market.”

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Jenkins also suggested election concerns are part of the equation that is driving up small business anxieties.

“We hear from the Democrats that they want to help small businesses, but health insurance costs (really all insurance costs) continue to crush us and we hear that if we actually succeed and financially do well we will just be subject to pay a lot more in taxes,” he said. “All these factors leave a grey cloud over the head of small business owners across America.”

Ashley Lacer, owner and CEO of clothing brand Michelle Mae, told FOX Business small business owners like her “are constantly walking a tightrope these days with inflation making it harder to predict costs and plan for the future.”

Meanwhile, Florida small business owner Patrick Barnhill, owner of SpecialistID.com, says he is not surprised about uncertainty hitting an all-time high, but the issues go far beyond rising prices.

“We’re not just battling inflation – we’re fighting to maintain operations in an environment where the ground beneath our feet feels increasingly unstable,” he told FOX Business. 

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Although the NFIB’s Optimism Index did tick up by 0.3 points to 91.5, this marks the 33rd consecutive month the reading fell below the 50-year average of 98.

“While we try to stay optimistic, rising prices—from materials to shipping, and even unexpected legal fees—leave very little margin for error,” Lacer said. “It’s a constant balancing act between driving growth and safeguarding what we’ve worked so hard to build. Every decision feels like it carries more weight, and that uncertainty is becoming a daily challenge for all of us.” 

This story was updated on November 4, 2024.

The latest monthly survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) found small business uncertainty hit a record high in September.