The Five Oscar Nominations We’re Most Afraid of

As Oscar pundits, we have always preferred to observe the awards race rather than try to influence it. Following that path leads to an outsized sense of self-importance, and often, insanity. However, we are only human, and after devoting way too much mental energy to the Oscar race, it’s natural that we would have favorites. We try to be fair to everyone, but we know who we’re rooting for — and also, who we aren’t.

Now that Phase One voting has ended, we can speak our truth. Here are the Oscar nominations we would prefer not to see on Thursday morning. Not because we think they’re unjust. (Or rather, not all because we think they’re unjust.) But because of their potential impact on the race. Maybe they’ll upset the vibes. Maybe they’ll ignite the discourse in a way that’s going to be super-annoying. Or maybe they’ll set a bad precedent for the future. Either way, we’re crossing our fingers and hoping these names go unread.

Sebastian Stan in Best Actor for The Apprentice

There are currently four rock-solid prospective nominees in the Best Actor race: The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody, A Complete Unknown’s Timothee Chalamet, Conclave’s Ralph Fiennes, and Sing Sing’s Colman Domingo, with the fifth slot up for grabs. SAG went with Daniel Craig for Queer, who seems to be the betting favorite to get the nod. But after his BAFTA nomination, the scenario that’s creeping ever closer is a Sebastian Stan nomination for The Apprentice. Stan’s performance as Trump is pretty good, all things considered. The problem is, he gave a much better performance in A Different Man, where he plays a man with neurofibromatosis who undergoes an experimental treatment and must then adjust to the world as a new man. Stan does justice to a complicated character in that film, and locks in to the film’s archly comedic tone — it’s why he won prizes at the Golden Globes and Berlin Film Festival. But apart from the opportunity cost of not nominating a great performance, if Stan gets nominated for playing Donald Trump in a movie that casts Donald Trump in a bad light, guess who’s going to start interjecting his big, gross, sweaty opinions into the Oscar race? Donald Trump. Imagine the most annoying, quasi-informed Oscar punditry that we are already subjected to every year — They don’t nominate popular movies! The ceremony is too long! — filtered through the Trump nightmare machine. Absolutely not. Nominate anyone else. — Joe Reid

Selena Gomez in Best Supporting Actress for Emilia Pérez

I’m not here to slam Selena Gomez. As a musician, she has some bangers. As a celebrity, she seems like a decent person who’s been through a lot. I just don’t think she’s convincing in Emilia Pérez. In her defense, Gomez’s role would be tough for most actors to pull off: As Jessi, a gangster’s wife locked in a custody battle with the woman she doesn’t know is her spouse (who has secretly transitioned), she must navigate an underwritten part, a language she’s not fluent in, and some truly wild plot developments in the movie’s final act. Director Jacques Audiard has compared the film to an opera, but going big has never been Gomez’s strong suit. She’s better when she can go underplay, go dry. Furthermore, neither Gomez nor her movie appear to need this nomination all that much. Her acting career has already been amply recognized for Only Murders in the Building, and even if she misses out, Emilia Pérez will probably still lead the field in total Oscar nominations. Worst of all, a Selena Gomez nomination would continue this season’s online stan war around the Supporting Actress race, which has seen either legitimate attempts at bribery from Ariana Grande fans, or false-flag schemes by the Selenators. Call me Dido, because this is my white flag. End the fighting — leave Selena out. — Nate Jones

Jamie Lee Curtis in Best Supporting Actress for The Last Showgirl

Gia Coppola’s film is an ungainly thing, full of frustrating pacing and repetitive story beats. But inside that not-very-good movie is a performance by Pamela Anderson of delicate, weary value. Unfortunately, the Best Actress race is an incredibly crowded field this year, and Anderson’s comeback-from-the-’90s narrative was usurped by Demi Moore, who was in a much better movie. Instead, we might end up with an acting nomination for Jamie Lee Curtis, who plays fellow past-her-prime showgirl Annette. With nods from SAG and BAFTA in the last couple weeks, and two years after winning for Everything Everywhere All At Once, Curtis feels poised for a halo nomination — the kind of nomination that comes a year or two after winning an Oscar, when you can do no wrong in voters’ eyes (think North Country for Charlize Theron or Vice for Sam Rockwell). Curtis is a good actress, capable of skilled comedy and well-calibrated tone. But over the last few years, she’s fallen into a rut of overly broad performances that nonetheless seem to attract the kinds of awards voters who like to be clubbed over the head with capital-P Performing. Worse yet, Curtis’s excess in The Last Showgirl distracts from Anderson’s quieter work. If Curtis ends up nominated at the expense of, say, The Piano Lesson’s Danielle Deadwyler — who also goes big in her performance, but with material that more clearly warrants it — it’s going to be as depressing as a long-running burlesque cabaret going out of business. — J.R.

Wicked in Best Cinematography

For lovers and haters alike, Wicked’s cinematography is the fly in the ointment of the season’s biggest surprise. An expert might note that “the camera direction, lighting, and color grading are not meaningfully working in tandem with one another.” A layman might simply observe that, for all its other joys, the movie’s visuals are often quite poor: muddy, underlit foregrounds; a desaturated sheen that makes even the practical effects look like CGI. Despite this, Wicked was nominated by the American Society of Cinematographers last week, putting it on track to be recognized at the Oscars. Not only would this be another regrettable case of the Academy rubber-stamping a Best Picture nominee into a craft category where it doesn’t belong, a nod for Wicked could have the knock-on effect of bumping Nickel Boys, a film whose cinematography genuinely pushes the medium forward. If Wicked gets nominated here, it would be the most controversial craft nomination since Bohemian Rhapsody got into Best Editing. — N.J.

Moana 2 in Best Animated Feature

It’s been a very competitive year in the Best Animated Feature category, with Inside Out 2 blowing up at the summer box office, The Wild Robot captivating audiences in the fall, and the Latvian sensation Flow dominating the precursor awards. So what’s the harm in giving Disney some shine for its blockbuster sequel Moana 2 and letting it take up one of those two remaining slots? Well, for one, it’s annoying that it’s just assumed that Disney should get a nomination every year unless their offering is an egregious bomb. For another, Moana 2 is a huge step backward from the excellent 2016 original, particularly when it comes to the songs; they aren’t written by Lin-Manuel Miranda this time around, and it shows. More importantly, though, we shouldn’t set a precedent for Disney to just retrofit one of their Disney+ cash-in TV series into a feature film and get an Oscar nomination for it. — J.R.