Trump’s tariff strategy could pay for his tax bill, but only if they stick, experts warn

The White House and congressional Republicans have said that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs would help pay for his mammoth tax bill, but tax experts say it depends on whether the president stays consistent.

Senate Republicans are in the midst of hashing out their plan to tweak and reshape the president’s “big, beautiful bill,” which includes Trump’s desire to extend and make permanent his first-term tax policies.

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However, the tax portion of the bill alone is expected to cost roughly $4 trillion. And when factoring in spending cuts and other revenue and economic drivers, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found in a report earlier this week that, in all, the colossal legislative package would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

The CBO, which has come under recent scrutiny from congressional Republicans unhappy with the scoring of the president’s “big, beautiful bill,” also found that Trump’s tariffs would reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the same period.

Joe Rosenberg, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, told Fox News Digital that the reconciliation package’s potential impact on the debt is more concerning now than in 2017, due to higher debt levels and rising interest rates.

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When Republicans were putting together the president’s original tax package, the national debt was roughly $20 trillion. Eight years later, that number has ballooned to over $36 trillion and counting. 

Rosenberg contended that if the CBO’s report were taken as is, then Trump’s tariffs would make the bill deficit neutral and then some. But the report assumed that the eye-popping sums that Trump’s tariffs could generate were based on whether they were permanent.

“I think what we’ve seen is that the tariff policy, again, seems to change day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute,” he said. “And the administration is a little bit inconsistent about whether they view tariffs as purely a revenue source versus essentially a negotiating tool.”

The report also found that in exchange for trillions in deficit reduction, household wealth would drop, and the economy would shrink each year over the next decade.

Tad Dehaven, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute, argued that this factor—along with Trump’s tariffs being tied up in court over constitutional challenges and their shifting application—makes any projected benefits “extraordinarily unlikely.”

“Let’s pretend that these tariffs are going to remain in place for 10 years at some level delineated today. That’s a major tax increase, so whatever alleged benefit you’re receiving from the tax cut in the reconciliation package, it’s being offset by a tax increase,” he said. “And a rather economically inefficient one.”

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Mike Palicz, director of tax policy at the conservative Americans for Tax Reform, scoffed at the CBO’s recent scoring, and lamented the agency as “a bunch of bean counters” that often miss the mark on key pieces of legislation, like the president’s original Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

He argued that none of the outside noise should matter, telling Fox News Digital that “you cannot go out and explain to a normal person or business that their taxes aren’t increasing next year if the Trump tax cuts are allowed to expire.”

“That’s what the whole point of this exercise is, preventing the expiration of tax cuts, preventing the largest tax increase in American history,” he said. “And no conservative, no Republican, should think that you address the deficit by raising taxes.”