Tua Tagovailoa could be the NFL’s next quarterback reclamation project

Tua Tagovailoa could be the NFL’s next quarterback reclamation project.

Now that he’s been benched by the Dolphins, Tagovailoa’s future in Miami is uncertain. The Dolphins (6-8) will take a look at rookie seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers over the final three games. They haven’t won a playoff game since January 2001, the longest drought in the NFL.

The 27-year-old Tagovailoa hasn’t lived up to the $212.4 million, four-year contract extension he signed after leading the NFL with 4,624 yards passing in 2023 and guiding the Dolphins to 11 wins and a playoff berth.

Trading Tagovailoa will be difficult because of his contract. He’s due $54 million guaranteed next season. If the Dolphins somehow found a trade partner before March 13, they would incur a dead cap hit of $45.2 million. A trade after March 13 would result in a $60.2 million dead cap charge.

Releasing Tagovailoa before that date means the Dolphins would owe him $54 million in 2026 and would absorb $99.2 million in dead salary cap charges. That would be the largest in NFL history. Denver took an $85 million cap hit after releasing Russell Wilson in 2024 and spread the charges over two seasons.

Releasing Tagovailoa with a post-June 1 designation would allow the Dolphins to spread those cap hits over two seasons with $67.4 million allocated to the 2026 cap and the remaining $31.8 million in 2027.

A release would seem to be the most likely outcome. The Broncos overcame that cap hit from Wilson’s release, made the playoffs last season and currently have the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Dolphins could get creative by adding draft picks to entice a team to make a trade. That would require finding a team that has cap space to take on Tagovailoa’s large contract.

Of course, Miami could choose to keep Tagovailoa as a backup like Atlanta did with Kirk Cousins this season.

The expectation is Tagovailoa will be wearing a new uniform next year.

He’s only 27 years old, has made a Pro Bowl and posted a passer rating above 100 in each of his three previous seasons before tossing a league-leading 15 interceptions this season.

Tagovailoa also has a history of concussions so that could be a deterrent.

Several quarterbacks who were first-round picks have revived their careers after getting a fresh start with a new team. The list includes Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Sam Darnold.

Here are five potential landing spots for Tagovailoa in 2026:

New York Jets

They’ve never defeated Tagovailoa, going 0-7 against Miami when he starts. The Jets need a franchise quarterback and will likely draft one in the first round. But Tagovailoa could be an inexpensive bridge quarterback with low risk, high reward potential. If he’s released, the Jets could sign him for the veteran minimum while the Dolphins pay him $50 million-plus to go away.

Cleveland Browns

They’re in the same position as the Jets but also have two rookie quarterbacks they’ve tried out this season. Third-round pick Dillon Gabriel was 1-5 in six starts. Fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders is 1-3 going into his fifth start this week.

Las Vegas Raiders

They need a franchise quarterback and have been a franchise that isn’t afraid to take risks. Tagovailoa plays better in a warmer climate so that’s a fit. The Raiders will also likely draft a quarterback in the first round.

Pittsburgh Steelers

They took a chance on Wilson last year and have Aaron Rodgers this season. He’s 42 and could retire. Even if he returns for a season, the Steelers need a quarterback for the future. Tagovailoa could learn plenty from watching Rodgers for a season.

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray’s contract will be tough to trade unless maybe they swap him for Tagovailoa. Murray will be entering the third season of a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension, averaging $46.1 million per year. He’s due $36.8 million guaranteed next year.

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