User’s manual to a likely government shutdown tonight

A government shutdown is all but assured to begin at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday. 

The Senate will take a test vote to break a filibuster on a House-passed interim spending bill later today. But that needs 60 yeas. That means Democratic votes are necessary, and that’s why the government likely shuts down. 

The House is not even in session this week. 

Plus, Yom Kippur begins Wednesday night at sundown. That means the government is closed for a minimum of several days. 

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The last time the government shut down was in 2018-2019. That 35-day shutdown was the longest in history. 

The Trump administration will determine which agencies and services are essential. For instance, those in the military, national security and intelligence personnel remain on the job. 

Lawmakers must be paid, under the 27th Amendment to the Constitution. 

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National Parks and museums usually close. However, the Postal Service continues to operate. Passport processing usually stops. Air traffic controllers continue to work. But they aren’t paid until there’s a resolution. The government continues to pay Social Security and other retirement or health benefits. But, there’s always the possibility that federal workers who process those checks could refuse to come to work if they’re not getting paid and a shutdown drags on. 

There’s often a tipping point in each government shutdown that triggers both sides to lay down their political swords and forge an agreement. That returns everyone to work. 

In 2013, U.S. Capitol Police officers were still on the job without pay when they got involved in a high-speed chase and shooting that started at the White House and wound up near the Hart Senate Office Building. Officers were injured in the mayhem. That prompted lawmakers from both sides to sober up and re-open the government.

Growing concern about aviation safety helped end a 2019 shutdown. Air traffic controllers worked for more than a month without pay. A small group of controllers elected to stay home. That prompted a temporary shutdown at LaGuardia Airport in New York. Issues also materialized in Newark, N.J., Atlanta and Philadelphia. Fear of a major air disaster prompted lawmakers and the first Trump administration to terminate the shutdown.

Who prevails in government shutdowns? It’s hard to gauge the political benefit. It’s widely believed that former President Bill Clinton won his standoff with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., in 1995-1996. Clinton rode easily to reelection in the fall of 1996. Gingrich seemed to bleed support on Capitol Hill after the shutdown. But Gingrich secured significant spending reforms that ultimately resulted in a federal surplus a few years later. And Republicans maintained control of the House and Senate in 1996.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, engineered the 2013 shutdown over repealing Obamacare. Obamacare remains the law of the land. Cruz won reelection in 2018. Democrats didn’t flip the House in the 2014 midterms as Republicans expanded their majority, and the GOP gained control of the Senate.

The 2018-2019 shutdown started even before the House and Senate swore in freshmen elected in the 2018 midterms. So divining a political impact from that particular shutdown is challenging. A host of other factors — including the COVID-19 pandemic — were much bigger than the shutdown by the time we got to November 2020. Trump lost reelection that year. Democrats maintained control of the House in 2020. And Democrats narrowly flipped the Senate.