Who Will (and Should) Win at the 2025 Grammys?

As the wildfires burned in Los Angeles, the Recording Academy had a difficult decision to make: Go ahead with the Grammys or postpone them to a later date. The organization eventually decided that the show would continue with “a renewed sense of purpose,” an emphasis on fundraising, and a tribute to L.A.’s first responders. Meanwhile, most industry groups have canceled their Grammy-week parties, making for a quieter run-up to this year’s event.

So what should we expect on stage this Sunday? The titan-filled top line may look like any other Grammys at first glance: Taylor Swift, Kendrick Lamar, and Beyoncé are all up for nominations. But this year, it’s the new faces who are drawing the most attention, with Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan getting a shot at Grammy gold across multiple fields. Though the Academy’s old habits always die hard — just look further down the ballot, where categories like rock still seem resistant to give the keys to a new generation — I expect the fresh faces to win out.

General

Record of the Year
“Now and Then,” the Beatles
“Texas Hold ’Em,” Beyoncé
“Espresso,” Sabrina Carpenter
“360,” Charli XCX
“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
“Good Luck, Babe!,” Chappell Roan
“Fortnight,” Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone

It’s the rare year where all eight nominees have a potential shot. Sabrina Carpenter and Kendrick Lamar’s hits were everywhere. Chappell Roan and Charli XCX both had enviable breakouts, even if they weren’t as tied to specific tracks. These aren’t anywhere near Taylor Swift’s or Beyoncé’s best entries, but each is overdue a Record of the Year trophy. Billie Eilish has won ROTY twice this decade, so never count her out. And, well, a win for the so-called final Beatles song in 2025 would just be the kind of shit the Academy is known to pull.

So how should we parse this? Over the past few years, Record of the Year has gone to a hit that showed an obvious level of craft — not the biggest song but the one the Academy seemed to wish more music would sound like. Those winners usually have a throwback quality to them. Two this year that bill the best: “Texas Hold ’Em” and “Espresso.” Beyoncé likely impressed the Academy’s more conservative voters by bringing in a rich array of live instruments on Cowboy Carter, including folk scholar Rhiannon Giddens plucking the banjo on “Texas.” “Espresso,” meanwhile, rode a breezy ’80s groove to the top of the charts — and modeled how to break an artist years into her career.

Really, though, this should be an open-and-shut case for “Not Like Us.” Lamar is on his fourth ROTY nod without a win, but artists rarely get to break those streaks with such a deserving song — especially one that drove a whole news cycle and a summer of partying.

Will win: “Espresso”
Should win: “Not Like Us”

Album of the Year
New Blue Sun, André 3000
Cowboy Carter, Beyoncé
Short n’ Sweet, Sabrina Carpenter
Brat, Charli XCX
Djesse Vol. 4, Jacob Collier
Hit Me Hard and Soft, Billie Eilish
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Chappell Roan
The Tortured Poets Department, Taylor Swift

We’ve already seen Taylor Swift win Album of the Year twice this decade, but don’t expect her to bag another for The Tortured Poets Department. The Academy already made her the artist with the most AOTY trophies ever in 2024, but no artist has won back-to-back in this category in more than 50 years. With history already secured for Swift, I’d expect voters to spend their picks elsewhere.

Perhaps, finally, on Beyoncé? She has as good a case as ever, after embracing another new genre more than two decades into her career. But Carpenter, Charli, and Roan are all standing in the way. Each brought something fresh and new to pop music in 2024 — it’s just a question of what voters find more impressive. The ingénue churning out gossamer pop hits? The pop workhorse who turned her breakthrough into a multimedia cultural moment? The queer prima donna conquering festivals while staying unabashedly herself?

Charli had the best showing in nominations, earning nods up and down the Pop and Dance fields, along with crucial below-the-line showings in Best Music Video and Best Recording Package. She also had the same dominant year that carried Taylor Swift and Harry Styles to recent wins here.

Will win: Brat
Should win: Cowboy Carter

Song of the Year
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Shaboozey
“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish
“Die With a Smile,” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars
“Fortnight,” Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone
“Good Luck, Babe!,” Chappell Roan
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
“Please Please Please,” Sabrina Carpenter
“Texas Hold ’Em,” Beyoncé

Recently, the Academy has wanted one of two things for the top songwriting award: a story or a message. That singles out a few contenders. Swift’s “Fortnight” is a third-person tale of infidelity, like a more modern folklore or evermore cut. The acclaimed songwriter has never won Song of the Year, making this an enticing pick for voters who still want to recognize her somewhere. But she’s facing competition from someone who grew up studying her own songwriting, in Roan. “Good Luck, Babe!” is a plea to a lover uncomfortable with recognizing her own queerness that seems to check both of voters’ boxes. It would be the first song with an overtly gay message to win a top award, a sell for voters itching to send a message early into Trump’s second term.

I don’t know what to make of “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” showing up in Song but not Record of the Year. Unlike in ROTY, voters don’t prioritize hits here — in fact, two of this decade’s winners never even cracked the Hot 100. Maybe it’s a sign that the Academy respects the craft of “A Bar Song” more than anything. Or, as I suspect, it means Shaboozey was on the cusp of a ROTY nod and missed. That’s a shame, because an innovative hit like “A Bar Song” deserves top honors.

Will win: “Good Luck, Babe!”
Should win: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”

Best New Artist
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Doechii
Khruangbin
Raye
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims

This is a two-horse race at this point, between Carpenter and Roan, but I do have an eye on potential spoilers. One is English pop singer-songwriter Raye, whose surprise showing in Songwriter of the Year gives her technical cred and signals wide support from Academy voters. The other is Top Dawg–signed rapper Doechii, who also showed up in a few of the rap categories and has been having a post-nomination breakout arc that reminds me of Victoria Monét last year. (Country voters alone have never had much pull here, so Shaboozey feels like more of a long shot without that Record of the Year love.)

Will win: Sabrina Carpenter
Should win: Chappell Roan

Producer of the Year
Alissia
Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II
Ian Fitchuk
Mustard
Dan Nigro

Since Producer of the Year made the jump to the general categories, where all Academy members can vote on it, only Jack Antonoff has won. But after a historic three-year streak, Antonoff has finally been booted for some fresher names, making this award pretty hard to predict. The wider voting pool puts more emphasis on marquee pop projects, which narrows this down to three names. Mustard and D’Mile both have credits on highly touted songs in “Not Like Us” and “Die With a Smile,” respectively. But Antonoff’s obvious successor is Gen-Z whisperer Dan Nigro, who built his name over the past few years by shepherding Olivia Rodrigo and Chappell Roan’s careers.

Will win: Dan Nigro
Should win: Mustard

Songwriter of the Year
Jessi Alexander
Amy Allen
Édgar Barrera
Jessie Jo Dillon
Raye

Songwriters rarely have breakout years, but that’s exactly what happened with Amy Allen, who logged hits for Sabrina Carpenter and Tate McRae while also dropping her own solo album. And she had even more songs cresting on the charts during voting, as Koe Wetzel and Jessie Murph’s “High Road” became a country No. 1 and Rosé and Bruno Mars’s “APT.” continued its global dominance. Latin giant Édgar Barrera and country stalwart Jessie Jo Dillon are also on their second nominations, but neither have the major credits they did last year, when Barrera was repping breakout Grupo Frontera and Dillon had worked with a still-ascendant Jelly Roll. They deserve recognition eventually, but Allen’s portfolio is undeniable.

Will win: Amy Allen
Should win: Amy Allen

Pop & Dance/Electronic

Best Pop Solo Performance
“Bodyguard,” Beyoncé
“Espresso,” Sabrina Carpenter“
Apple,” Charli XCX
“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish
“Good Luck, Babe!,” Chappell Roan

There’s a chance this becomes a consolation prize for a pop hit that misses on Record/Song of the Year, like “Birds of a Feather.” But that would require voters to pick against “Espresso,” which is hard for me to imagine.

Will win: “Espresso”
Should win: “Espresso”

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
“Us,” Gracie Abrams featuring Taylor Swift
“Levii’s Jeans,” Beyoncé featuring Post Malone
“Guess,” Charli XCX and Billie Eilish
“The Boy Is Mine,” Ariana Grande, Brandy, and Monica
“Die With a Smile,” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars

Minus “The Boy Is Mine,” each of these entries either has a top nominee or is up for a general category award, which makes for a pretty competitive race. My brain says “Die With a Smile,” a SOTY nominee featuring two former winners that logged its best chart week just as voting closed. But my gut says “Guess,” another track that packs double the punch, uniting an old Grammy favorite in Eilish with a new one in Charli.

Will win: “Guess”
Should win: “Guess”

Best Pop Vocal Album
Short n’ Sweet, Sabrina Carpenter
Hit Me Hard and Soft, Billie Eilish
Eternal Sunshine, Ariana Grande
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Chappell Roan
The Tortured Poets Department, Taylor Swift

As confident as I am about “Espresso” up and down the ballot, I wonder if such a strong contender of a single overshadows Carpenter’s full-length album. This race is even more stacked than Pop Solo Performance, featuring half of our AOTY field. (Good thing Ariana Grande has an Oscar campaign to focus on.) Like Pop Solo Performance, a win here could be a way to recognize an artist without giving them AOTY. That makes Hit Me Hard and Soft the likeliest pick. I’ll believe voters are tired of awarding Eilish once I see it.

Will win: Hit Me Hard and Soft
Should win: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess

Best Dance/Electronic Recording
“She’s Gone, Dance On,” Disclosure
“Loved,” Four Tet
“Leavemealone,” Fred again.. and Baby Keem
“Neverender,” Justice and Tame Impala
“Witchy,” Kaytranada and Childish Gambino

It’s hard to crack what the Academy’s dance voters want — one year, they’re awarding acclaimed acts like Kaytranada and Fred again.., the next, it’s big-tent festival fare like Rüfüs Du Sol. They love Disclosure enough to have nominated them five times, but have yet to actually give them the big prize. This could be the year, especially with an influx of pop members now voting here too.

Will win: “She’s Gone, Dance On”
Should win: “Leavemealone”

Best Dance Pop Recording
“Make You Mine,” Madison Beer
“Von Dutch,” Charli XCX
“L’Amour de Ma Vie (Over Now Extended Edit),” Billie Eilish
“yes, and?,” Ariana Grande
“Got Me Started,” Troye Sivan

Billie, Ariana, Charli — this is just the sort of stacked slate the Academy was dreaming of when it introduced this category last year. And for once, they were early to a trend, ahead of last year’s brat summer. This should be Charli’s easiest layup of the night.

Will win: “Von Dutch”
Should win: “Von Dutch”

Best Dance/Electronic Album
Charli XCX, Brat
Four Tet, Three
Justice, Hyperdrama
Kaytranada, Timeless
Zedd, Telos

Two years ago, Beyoncé handily won in the dance categories over stalwarts like Diplo and Odesza. Charli XCX is on a similar path this year but has even more of an advantage. For one, she’s been working in electronic music for more than a decade. But more importantly, she can lean on a bloc of pop voters, too, now. Another easy win for Brat.

Will win: Brat
Should win: Brat

Best Remixed Recording, Non-Classical
“Alter Ego,” Kaytranada (Doechii featuring JT)
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” David Guetta (Shaboozey)
“Espresso,” FnZ and Mark Ronson (Sabrina Carpenter)
“Jah Sees Them,” Alexx Antaeus, Footsteps, and MeMyish (Julian Marley and Antaeus)
“Von Dutch,” A. G. Cook (Charli XCX and A. G. Cook featuring Addison Rae)

This category is being moved from the Engineering field to the Pop & Dance/Electronic field for the first time, and it’s an odd one. Here’s the deal: Best Remixed Recording goes only to the remixer(s), not the original artists or any featured artists added to the remix. So the award has tended to prioritize remixes that change the sound of a song, rather than just bringing aboard a new guest verse. Hits were acknowledged but never ruled the category — last year, Wet Leg won for a remix of a Depeche Mode song. But I’m expecting that to change with pop voters now choosing the award. Judging by the nominees, it already has (voters even nominated David Guetta for one of the tackiest remixes I’ve ever heard). Charli XCX made her Brat remixes into a full moment with her remix album, and I expect the Academy to recognize that here by awarding her longtime producer, A. G. Cook.

Will win: “Von Dutch”
Should win: “Espresso”

Rock, Metal & Alternative

Best Rock Performance
“Now and Then,” the Beatles
“Beautiful People (Stay High),” the Black Keys
“The American Dream Is Killing Me,” Green Day
“Gift Horse,” Idles
“Dark Matter,” Pearl Jam
“Broken Man,” St. Vincent

I have never liked the English rock band Idles — I find their songs to be heavy-handed and grating. But the Academy has reduced me to rooting for them in the Rock field, because at least their win would mean something new. Half of these nominees have been making music since the 20th century, and two more since the 2000s.

Will win: “Now and Then”
Should win: “Gift Horse”

Best Metal Performance
“Mea Culpa (Ah! Ça ira!),” Gojira, Marina Viotti, and Victor Le Masne
“Crown of Horns,” Judas Priest
“Suffocate,” Knocked Loose featuring Poppy
“Screaming Suicide,” Metallica
“Cellar Door,” Spiritbox

I found hope in the unlikeliest of places: the metal award. A woman has never won Best Metal Performance, but now is the time for that to change, with an impressive three of the nominees featuring women — including likely winner Marina Viotti, who was part of the biggest metal moment of the year, performing a version of “Ça Ira” with Gojira at the summer Olympics Opening Ceremony. It’s such an obvious pick — all it’ll take is voters passing up seven-time winners Metallica.

Will win: “Mea Culpa (Ah! Ça ira!)”
Should win: “Suffocate”

Best Rock Song
“Beautiful People (Stay High),” the Black Keys
“Broken Man,” St. Vincent
“Dark Matter,” Pearl Jam
“Dilemma,” Green Day
“Gift Horse,” Idles

With “Now and Then” not nominated, Best Rock Song is more of a wild card. “Gift Horse” could actually be Idles’s breakthrough win. But I see two more likely outcomes. One, “Dark Matter” is a late prize for the under-awarded Pearl Jam. Two, “Broken Man” gets a second songwriting trophy for St. Vincent, a longtime Academy fixture who’s now cresting with a record four nominations.

Will win: “Broken Man”
Should win: “Gift Horse”

Best Rock Album
Happiness Bastards, the Black Crowes
Romance, Fontaines D.C.
Saviors, Green Day
Tangk, Idles
Dark Matter, Pearl Jam
Hackney Diamonds, Rolling Stones
No Name, Jack White

For as influential as they are, Pearl Jam has won just two Grammys — and one of those was for Best Recording Package. The Academy loves to correct their old mistakes, and this is a ripe opportunity. This year, Pearl Jam earned a trifecta of rock nominations for the first time, which points to a win for their 12th album, Dark Matter. But if we must award genre stalwarts, Jack White’s No Name is a rollicking return to form that’s just as deserving.

Will win: Dark Matter
Should win: No Name

Best Alternative Music Performance
“Neon Pill,” Cage the Elephant
“Song of the Lake,” Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds
“Starburster,” Fontaines D.C.
“Bye Bye,” Kim Gordon
“Flea,” St. Vincent

It’s pretty cool to see Nick Cave and Kim Gordon each nominated for their music for the first time. I wouldn’t be disappointed to see either of them win, or Fontaines D.C. for their Gorillaz-esque “Starburster.” But the Alternative field is St. Vincent’s home turf.

Will win: “Flea”
Should win: “Song of the Lake”

Best Alternative Music Album
Wild God, Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds
Charm, Clairo
The Collective, Kim Gordon
What Now, Brittany Howard
All Born Screaming, St. Vincent

Nominating Charm but not its unlikely hit single “Juna”? That’s glaring Clairo shade. It baffles me a little that Clairo isn’t more of a Grammy darling by now; she’s studiously old-fashioned and approaches her music like a craftsperson.

Will win: All Born Screaming
Should win: Charm

R&B & Rap

Best R&B Performance
“Guidance,” Jhené Aiko
“Residuals,” Chris Brown
“Here We Go (Uh Oh),” Coco Jones
“Made for Me (Live on BET),” Muni Long
“Saturn,” SZA

Muni Long released her single “Made for Me” on the final day of eligibility for last year’s Grammys, but it didn’t get nominated, or receive much attention. Then, weeks before the Grammys, it went viral on TikTok, and ended up hitting No. 20 on the Hot 100. Unable to nominate the studio version of the song again, Long entered a live version of her hit. It used to be a popular (and lucrative) strategy at the Grammys, but it’s been much less successful in the past decade. Instead, Coco Jones could earn her second trophy here in as many years, or SZA could add one to her collection after her SOS haul last year. But I’m not counting out Jhené Aiko. She’s up for her first nomination after a surprise AOTY showing in 2021 for Chilombo.

Will win: “Guidance”
Should win: “Saturn”

Best Traditional R&B Performance
“Wet,” Marsha Ambrosius
“Can I Have This Groove,” Kenyon Dixon
“No Lie,” Lalah Hathaway featuring Michael McDonald
“Make Me Forget,” Muni Long
“That’s You,” Lucky Daye

The rule of thumb in this category: Follow the vocals. I didn’t take my own advice last year — I picked Victoria Monét’s “Hollywood” on account of its classic groove and Earth, Wind & Fire feature, even though Monét’s singing wasn’t too flashy. (The win went to “Good Morning” and PJ Morton’s syrupy vocal performance instead.) This year, I see two contenders: Long’s “Make Me Forget” and Lucky Daye’s “That’s You.” Voters seem eager to continue nurturing Long after nominating her for Best New Artist in 2023, so I give her the edge. Plus, she sings the hell out of every line in that song.

Will win: “Make Me Forget”
Should win: “Make Me Forget”

Best R&B Song
“After Hours,” Kehlani
“Burning,” Tems
“Here We Go (Uh Oh),” Coco Jones
“Ruined Me,” Muni Long
“Saturn,” SZA

Almost any of these could be contenders. But only one nominee, SZA, had the benefit of releasing a new project in the middle of the voting window, when she dropped her SOS deluxe Lana.

Will win: “Saturn”
Should win: “Saturn”

Best Progressive R&B Album
So Glad to Know You, AverySunshine
En Route, Durand Bernarr
Bando Stone & the New World, Childish Gambino
Crash, Kehlani
Why Lawd?, NxWorries

Bando Stone is allegedly Donald Glover’s final album as Childish Gambino. After the Academy’s wave of support for “This Is America” in 2019, expect voters to send him off on a high note.

Will win: Bando Stone & the New World
Should win: Crash

Best R&B Album
11:11 (Deluxe), Chris Brown
Vantablack, Lalah Hathaway
Revenge, Muni Long
Algorithm, Lucky Daye
Coming Home, Usher

Muni Long is nominated in three of the above categories for three different songs. That tells me that these voters are listening to a lot of Muni Long, and points toward some recognition for her full-length. But R&B voters can throw curveballs, like in 2023, when they passed up Mary J. Blige’s AOTY-nominated Good Morning, Gorgeous for Robert Glasper’s Black Radio III. Watch out, because this category has the perfect spoiler: Coming Home, a return to form from genre icon Usher.

Will win: Revenge
Should win: Revenge

Best Rap Performance
“Enough (Miami),” Cardi B
“When the Sun Shines Again,” Common and Pete Rock featuring Posdnuos
“Nissan Altima,” Doechii
“Houdini,” Eminem
“Like That,” Future, Metro Boomin, and Kendrick Lamar
“Yeah Glo!” GloRilla
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar

What an odd bunch of songs: Rap lifers like Common and Eminem next to a record number of women, including ascendants Doechii and GloRilla. But never bet against Kendrick Lamar here, where he’s won six times.

Will win: “Not Like Us”
Should win: “Not Like Us”

Best Melodic Rap Performance
“Kehlani,” Jordan Adetunji featuring Kehlani
“Spaghetii,” Beyoncé featuring Linda Martell and Shaboozey
“We Still Don’t Trust You,” Future, Metro Boomin, and the Weeknd
“Big Mama,” Latto
“3:AM,” Rapsody featuring Erykah Badu

Again, we have record female representation — four of the five nominees involve women, and one is 83-year-old country trailblazer Linda Martell! But with “Not Like Us” likely to take most of the rap awards, this is one of the only places voters can recognize Future and Metro Boomin’s big 2024.

Will win: “We Still Don’t Trust You”
Should win: “Spaghetii”

Best Rap Song
“Asteroids,” Rapsody featuring Hit-Boy
“Carnival,” Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign featuring Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti
“Like That,” Future, Metro Boomin, and Kendrick Lamar
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
“Yeah Glo!” GloRilla

Lamar’s history here isn’t as impressive as Best Rap Performance. But all four of his wins here were for solo tracks — just like “Not Like Us,” which Lamar also penned entirely by himself. As fun as that song is, though, I never enjoy a clean sweep. So I’m pulling for some hardware for GloRilla’s wonderfully cocky brag track “Yeah Glo!”

Will win: “Not Like Us”
Should win: “Yeah Glo!”

Best Rap Album
Might Delete Later, J. Cole
The Auditorium, Vol. 1, Common and Pete Rock
Alligator Bites Never Heal, Doechii
The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace), Eminem
We Don’t Trust You, Future and Metro Boomin

It’s glaringly obvious that many of the most exciting rappers right now are women. That’s why female representation in the rap categories is a big deal — and the Grammys are finally catching up, with Doechii the first woman nominated for Best Rap Album since Cardi B won for Invasion of Privacy in 2019. Unfortunately, Eminem’s probably gonna win his seventh trophy instead.

Will win: The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace)
Should win: Alligator Bites Never Heal

Country

Best Country Solo Performance
“16 Carriages,” Beyoncé
“I Am Not Okay,” Jelly Roll
“The Architect,” Kacey Musgraves
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Shaboozey
“It Takes a Woman,” Chris Stapleton

Country Grammy voters are certainly less closed-minded than the country awards shows — which is how Beyoncé got nominated here even though she blanked at the Country Music Association Awards. But don’t expect a clean sweep like the one Beyoncé got in the Dance/Electronic categories for Renaissance two years ago.

Will win: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Should win: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”

Best Country Duo/Group Performance
“Cowboys Cry Too,” Kelsea Ballerini and Noah Kahan
“II Most Wanted,” Beyoncé and Miley Cyrus
“Break Mine,” Brothers Osborne
“Bigger Houses,” Dan + Shay
“I Had Some Help,” Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen

This is the only country category where we’ve recently seen pop acts win. Usually, though, they get there with help from an established country star — Justin Bieber worked with past winners Dan + Shay, while Pentatonix worked with Dolly Parton. Beyoncé doesn’t have that, but she does have the reigning Record of the Year winner, who has a bit of country cred herself as Parton’s goddaughter. I’m not too concerned about “I Had Some Help,” as big of a song as it was, because the Academy still just seems to be warming to Morgan Wallen. This is only his first Grammy nomination (he didn’t share in a Best Country Song nod for “Last Night” in 2024), for a song that underperformed expectations by not cracking the general categories.

Will win: “II Most Wanted”
Should win: “II Most Wanted”

Best Country Song
“The Architect,” Kacey Musgraves
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Shaboozey
“I Am Not Okay,” Jelly Roll
“I Had Some Help,” Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen
“Texas Hold ’Em,” Beyoncé

Compared to the country shows, the Grammys tend to prioritize the song itself over big-named songwriters in the songwriting category. That’s to Beyoncé’s benefit, since “Texas Hold ’Em” is her strongest entry in the Country field, with a Song of the Year nod to boot.

Will win: “Texas Hold ’Em”
Should win: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”

Best Country Album
Cowboy Carter, Beyoncé
F-1 Trillion, Post Malone
Deeper Well, Kacey Musgraves
Higher, Chris Stapleton
Whirlwind, Lainey Wilson

If Cowboy Carter is going to win Album of the Year, it won’t be country voters who push her over the line. So, BeyHive, don’t freak out when Beyoncé doesn’t win this award. Country voters have to give their annual trophy to Chris Stapleton somewhere.

Will win: Higher
Should win: Whirlwind

Latin, African & Global

Best Latin Pop Album
Funk Generation, Anitta
El Viaje, Luis Fonsi
García, Kany García
Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran, Shakira
Orquídeas, Kali Uchis

As with most Grammy categories, Best Latin Pop Album takes a conservative view of the genre. So as exciting as it is to see Kali Uchis’s synth-pop odyssey Orquídeas nominated, I’m ultimately expecting voters to give Shakira her third win.

Will win: Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran
Should win: Orquídeas

Best Música Urbana Album
Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, Bad Bunny
Rayo, J Balvin
Ferxxocalipsis, Feid
Las Letras Ya No Importan, Residente
Att., Young Miko

There are some exciting new names here, like Puerto Rico’s Young Miko and Colombia’s Feid. But Bad Bunny’s last three albums have won Grammys, and I see no reason that stops with Nadie Sabe.

Will win: Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana
Should win: Att.

Best Global Music Performance
“Raat Ki Rani,” Arooj Aftab
“A Rock Somewhere,” Jacob Collier featuring Anoushka Shankar and Varijashree Venugopal
“Rise,” Rocky Dawuni
“Bemba Colorá,” Sheila E. featuring Gloria Estefan and Mimy Succar
“Sunlight to My Soul,” Angélique Kidjo featuring Soweto Gospel Choir
“Kashira,” Masa Takumi featuring Ron Korb, Noshir Mody, and Dale Edward Chung

Now in its fourth year, this is still one of the hardest categories to predict. The obvious pick seems like “A Rock Somewhere,” which would be the first-ever Grammy for Indian sitar ambassador Anoushka Shankar. But I wonder if Jacob Collier’s programmed drums and autotuned vocals will be too much for global voters. So I’m turning to two other first-time winners: Sheila E. and Mimy Succar. Sheila is back in contention for the first time in 40 years, after earning four nominations (including Best New Artist) in 1985, while Succar is finally making a career in her 60s with help from her percussionist son Tony. (Having eight-time winner Gloria Estefan in the mix also helps.) Their song, “Bemba Colorá,” is a cover of a tropical classic by salsa singer Celia Cruz, and would be the first win for Latin music in this category.

Will win: “Bemba Colorá”
Should win: “Raat Ki Rani”

Best African Music Performance
“Tomorrow,” Yemi Alade
“MMS,” Asake and Wizkid
“Sensational,” Chris Brown featuring Davido and Lojay
“Higher,” Burna Boy
“Love Me JeJe,” Tems

The Academy introduced this award a year too late to honor Wizkid and Tems’s crossover hit “Essence.” Expect them to rectify that this year, with both artists nominated. Wizkid has the better chance alongside return-nominee Asake, with opportunities to reward Tems in two other categories.

Will win: “MMS”
Should win: “Love Me JeJe”

Best Global Music Album
Alkebulan II, Matt B featuring Royal Philharmonic Orchestra
Paisajes, Ciro Hurtado
Heis, Rema
Historias De Un Flamenco, Antonio Rey
Born in the Wild, Tems

For the first time since 2022, a majority of the nominees here represent African music styles. The test will be whether voters feel compelled to award an African album here now that Best African Music Performance is also a category. They certainly have worthy choices. I’d lobby for Rema’s Heis, a high-energy album that charts a clubby future for Afrobeats. But the bettor’s pick is Tems’s long-awaited debut album Born in the Wild, which also earned her two other nominations.

Will win: Born In the Wild
Should win: Heis

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